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People have been beaten down by constant media bombardment of fear, negativit. But,there is a silver lining. The future looks bright!

New Evidence on the Foreclosure Crisis

Zero money down, not subprime loans, led to the mortgage meltdown.

By STAN LIEBOWITZ

What is really behind the mushrooming rate of mortgage foreclosures since 2007? The evidence from a huge national database containing millions of individual loans strongly suggests that the single most important factor is whether the homeowner has negative equity in a house -- that is, the balance of the mortgage is greater than the value of the house. This means that most government policies being discussed to remedy woes in the housing market are misdirected.

Many policy makers and ordinary people blame the rise of foreclosures squarely on subprime mortgage lenders who presumably misled borrowers into taking out complex loans at low initial interest rates. Those hapless individuals were then supposedly unable to make the higher monthly payments when their mortgage rates reset upwards.

But the focus on subprimes ignores the widely available industry facts (reported by the Mortgage Bankers Association) that 51% of all foreclosed homes had prime loans, not subprime, and that the foreclosure rate for prime loans grew by 488% compared to a growth rate of 200% for subprime foreclosures. (These percentages are based on the period since the steep ascent in foreclosures began -- the third quarter of 2006 -- during which more than 4.3 million homes went into foreclosure.)

Sharing the blame in the popular imagination are other loans where lenders were largely at fault -- such as "liar loans," where lenders never attempted to validate a borrower's income or assets.

This common narrative also appears to be wrong, a conclusion that is based on my analysis of loan-level data from McDash Analytics, a component of Lender Processing Services Inc. It is the largest loan-level data source available, covering more than 30 million mortgages.

[Commentary]

The McDash data allowed me to construct a housing price index at the zip code level and then calculate the current equity position of each homeowner. I was thus able to compare the importance of negative equity to other variables related to foreclosures.

The analysis indicates that, by far, the most important factor related to foreclosures is the extent to which the homeowner now has or ever had positive equity in a home. The accompanying figure shows how important negative equity or a low Loan-To-Value ratio is in explaining foreclosures (homes in foreclosure during December of 2008 generally entered foreclosure in the second half of 2008). A simple statistic can help make the point: although only 12% of homes had negative equity, they comprised 47% of all foreclosures.

Further, because it is difficult to account for second mortgages in this data, my measurement of negative equity and its impact on foreclosures is probably too low, making my estimates conservative.

What about upward resets in mortgage interest rates? I found that interest rate resets did not measurably increase foreclosures until the reset was greater than four percentage points. Only 8% of foreclosures had an interest rate increase of that much. Thus the overall impact of upward interest rate resets is much smaller than the impact from equity.

To be sure, many other variables -- such as FICO scores (a measure of creditworthiness), income levels, unemployment rates and whether the house was purchased for speculation -- are related to foreclosures. But liar loans and loans with initial teaser rates had virtually no impact on foreclosures, in spite of the dubious nature of these financial instruments.

Instead, the important factor is whether or not the homeowner currently has or ever had an important financial stake in the house. Yet merely because an individual has a home with negative equity does not imply that he or she cannot make mortgage payments so much as it implies that the borrower is more willing to walk away from the loan.

The difference in policy implications is enormous: A significant reduction in foreclosures will happen when and only when housing prices stop falling and unemployment stops rising (see chart nearby).

Although the government is throwing money -- almost $2 trillion and counting -- at the mortgage markets with the intent of stabilizing house prices, its methods are poorly targeted. While Federal Reserve actions have succeeded in reducing mortgage interest rates, low interest rates induce refinancings more than they do home purchases.

To be sure, refinancings may put money in peoples' pockets, but it is home purchases that directly impact house prices. Nevertheless, housing prices are likely to stop falling fairly soon with or without government policies. That's because current prices are approaching their long-term, inflation-adjusted pre-bubble level. These pre-bubble prices appeared to be a long-term equilibrium, meaning that prices would be expected to return to those levels once the government's efforts to artificially increase homeownership receded. Unfortunately, recent attempts by politicians such as Barney Frank (D., Mass.) to again artificially increase homeownership levels might delay this return to sustainable equilibrium prices.

Other government policies are likely to be even less effective in reducing foreclosures. The Obama administration's "Making Homes Affordable" plan focuses on having the government help lower obligation ratios (the share of income devoted to house payments) down to 31% from levels somewhat above 38%. But my analysis finds that mortgages having such obligation ratios at closing did not later experience high foreclosure rates. This suggests that reducing these ratios is not likely to significantly improve the foreclosure problem.

Understanding the causes of the foreclosure explosion is required if we wish to avoid a replay of recent painful events. The suggestions being put forward by the administration and most media outlets -- more stringent regulation of subprime lenders -- would not have prevented the mortgage meltdown regardless of their merit otherwise.

Rather, stronger underwriting standards are needed -- especially a requirement for relatively high down payments. If substantial down payments had been required, the housing price bubble would certainly have been smaller, if it occurred at all, and the incidence of negative equity would have been much smaller even as home prices fell. A further beneficial regulation would be a strengthening, or at least clarifying at a national level, of the recourse that mortgage lenders have if a borrower defaults. Many defaults could be mitigated if homeowners with financial resources know they can't just walk away.

We are at a crossroads where we can undo the damage to the housing market by strengthening underwriting standards in a reasonable way. But to do so political leaders must face up to the actual causes of the mortgage crisis, not fictitious causes that fit political agendas and election strategies.

Mr. Liebowitz is professor of economics and director of the Center for the Analysis of Property Rights and Innovation in the management school at the University of Texas, Dallas.

Printed in The Wall Street Journal, page A13

Treasury Makes Refinancing More Attractive

The Treasury Department on Wednesday expanded its foreclosure prevention plan, lifting the current 105 percent loan-to-value cap to refinance up to 125 percent of a home’s value.

Applications to refinance mortgages have fallen as rates have increased in the last couple of weeks, but this move may bring more borrowers to the table.

At the same time, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have agreed to reduce the processing fee for borrowers who select a 25-year mortgage.

Fannie said in a statement, "The reduction is intended to lure borrowers to select shorter terms and build positive equity in their homes sooner than with a typical 30-year mortgage.”

Source: Reuters News, Patrick Rucker (07/01/2009)

Home Prices Fall 0.6% as Rate of Decline Slows

By KELLY EVANS

U.S. home prices eased their slide in April, but rising unemployment and shaky consumer confidence are weighing on prospects for a recovery in the housing market and broader economy.

Home prices in 20 major cities fell an average 0.6% in April, an improvement from the 2.2% decline the prior month, according to the Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller index released Tuesday. Thirteen metropolitan areas had price gains in April, led by Dallas, Denver and Cleveland, where prices rose 1% or more from the previous month.

David Blitzer, chairman of S&P's index committee, said in a statement that while "some stabilization may be appearing in some markets," the spring buying season usually helps buoy housing-market activity. "It will take some time to determine if a recovery is really here," he said.

Despite the improvement, home prices are down 18% on average from a year ago, and nearly 33% from their peak in 2006. Sun Belt cities have been hit hardest by the downturn; in Phoenix and Las Vegas, prices have dropped more than 50% from their peak. By comparison, Dallas prices have dropped 9.6%. Patrick Newport, an economist with IHS Global Insight in Lexington, Mass., said that while prices are "no longer in a free-fall," they are likely to keep dropping as foreclosed properties grow in number. Foreclosures and delinquency rates have worsened in recent months as rising unemployment makes it more difficult for homeowners to keep up with their mortgage payments.

Fannie, Freddie to Refinance Larger Underwater Loans

July 1 (Bloomberg) -- Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will begin refinancing mortgages with loan-to-value ratios of as much as 125 percent as the Obama administration seeks to boost participation in its anti-foreclosure programs.

Housing and Urban Development Secretary Shaun Donovan made the announcement in a statement today. Currently Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac, through President Barack Obama’s Home Affordable program, can refinance mortgages they own or guarantee when the loan is worth as much as 105 percent of the home’s market value.

The continuing slide in home prices has pushed millions of Americans beyond that 105 percent loan-to-value ratio, limiting participation in Obama’s initiative. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have refinanced 80,000 loans under that program, which set out to help as many as 5 million people who may owe more than their homes are worth, Federal Housing Finance Agency Director James Lockhart said at a real estate conference on June 18.

The decision to change the allowable ratio is part of an effort to “adapt to an ever-changing housing market,” Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said in the HUD statement. “By expanding refinance eligibility, we can bring relief to more struggling homeowners more quickly.”

Paul Miller, an analyst with FBR Capital Markets in Arlington, Virginia, said mortgage brokers have told him that many aren’t sending borrowers through the program because it’s cumbersome and the loan applications “still have a lot of bells and whistles, which makes them difficult to do.”

Little Impact

“I don’t think it’s going to have much of an impact because you still don’t have enough qualified borrowers,” Miller said, referring to today’s announcement. “It will help on the margin, but the issues with Obama’s plans is that they all focus on affordability and not principal writedowns and at some point they’re going to have to address” that, he said.

Just 20,000 of the 80,000 refinanced Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgages exceed loan-to-value ratios of 80 percent, which are the loans administration officials specifically targeted in designing the program, Lockhart said.

Peter Cirillo, an independent mortgage broker in Long Island, New York, said Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac’s risk-based pricing makes it “much too difficult” for borrowers to qualify to refinance, even if the companies already back their loans.

“All of these government programs are having little or no effect on the ability to refinance,” Cirillo said in an interview. “Even potential borrowers with great credit and low LTV’s, but reduced income, have no chance of refinancing to a lower rate or payment because of strict” rules on debt-to- income ratios, he said.

Home Values

A drop in values has left about 20.4 million of the U.S.’s 93 million houses, condos and co-ops with mortgages higher than the properties are worth as of March 31, Seattle-based real estate data service Zillow.com said in a report May 6.

Home Affordable has also been “seeing a slowdown” as mortgage rates increase, Lockhart said. The average rate on a typical 30-year fixed loan was 5.42 percent in the week ended June 25, according to Freddie Mac. The rate is up from a record low of 4.78 percent at the end of April.

U.S. mortgage applications fell last week by the most since February, the Mortgage Bankers Association said today. The MBA’s index of applications to buy a home or refinance a loan dropped 19 percent to 444.8 in the week ended June 26 from 548.2 the prior week. The group’s refinancing gauge fell 30 percent to the lowest in seven months, while the index of purchases declined 4.5 percent.

Loan Limits

The Obama program applies to mortgages that meet Washington-based Fannie Mae and McLean, Virginia-based Freddie Mac’s conforming loan limits. That cap is $417,000 for some areas and as high as $729,750 for the 250 most expensive real estate markets.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac own or guarantee more than half of the single-family mortgages in the U.S. The government- chartered companies were seized by regulators in September amid concern that their capital wasn’t sufficient to weather the worst housing slump since the Great Depression.

The companies each said in separate statements today that borrowers with loan-to-value ratios of between 105 percent and 125 percent must refinance through their existing mortgage company to qualify. Fannie Mae is additionally paying lenders an incentive equal to half a percentage point, to encourage refinancings to shorter terms of 20 or 25 years. Freddie Mac said it is also offering a “special price incentive” as well to borrowers that accept a shorter repayment schedule.

To contact the reporter on this story: Dawn Kopecki in Washington at dkopecki@bloomberg.net.

Toys R . . .

Why do they call it Toys"R"Us? The people who work there aren't toys. They should call it Toys"R"Here.

How is the real estate business?

A question I'm often asked.  There are so many great 'deals' out there you're foolish not to buy right now!

Weekly Market Activity Report

The number of homes for sale in the Twin Cities metro area continues to decline relative to a year ago. As of Monday morning this week, there were 26,674 homes for sale in the region, down 20.9 percent from a year ago. In other words, we've lost 1 in 5 homes in our inventory in the last year.

Sales are a different story. For the week ending June 20, there were 1,156 signed purchase agreements, up 32.1 percent from the same week in 2008. That's the 12th week of the last 13 to feature a year-over-year increase in sales activity exceeding 20 percent.

We must bear in mind, however, that sales are only up in certain categories and price ranges. Year to date, traditional home sales (excluding foreclosures and short sales) are still down 17.8 percent from last year. New construction sales are down 21.7 percent from last year. And sales of homes priced above $350,000 are down 26.8 percent from a year ago. The lion's share of market activity is taking place in the lower price ranges this year.

VIEW FULL REPORT | VIEW MORE RESEARCH REPORTS

You can make a difference.

If you think you are too small to make a difference, you've never had a mosquito in your bedroom.

A Passion for Excellence

We're living in a world in which the spirit of the day seems to be, "Do just enough to get by." That's why those with passion stand out like a shining beacon.

Update: Foreclosure Alternatives and Home Price Decline Protection Incentives

Update: Foreclosure Alternatives and Home Price Decline Protection Incentives

On Feb.18th the Obama Administration announced the Making Home Affordable (MHA) Program, a comprehensive plan to stabilize the US housing market and offer assistance to up to 7 to 9 million homeowners by reducing mortgage payments to affordable levels and preventing avoidable foreclosures.

As promised, two weeks later on March 4

th, the Administration published detailed program guidelines and authorized servicers to begin modifications and refinancings under the plan immediately. On April 28th, the Administration announced additional details related to the Second Lien Program and strengthening Hope for Homeowners. Fourteen servicers, including the five largest, have now signed contracts and begun modifications and refinancings under MHA. Between loans covered by these servicers and loans owned or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac, more than 75 percent of all loans in the country are now covered by the MHA program.

Today we are providing a program update, including additional details on Foreclosure Alternatives and Home Price Decline Protection Incentives. Foreclosure Alternatives will help to prevent costly foreclosures by providing incentives for servicers and borrowers to pursue short sales and deeds-in-lieu of foreclosure in cases where a borrower is eligible for a MHA modification but unable to complete the modification process. This program will assist homeowners who cannot afford to stay in their homes by helping them to avoid foreclosure and relocate to a home they can afford. Building on insights developed by the FDIC, Home Price Decline Protection Incentives will provide additional payments based on recent home price declines, and therefore will incentivize additional modifications in areas where home prices have been falling. By increasing MHA modifications and the use of alternatives to foreclosure, we will reduce the negative impact of foreclosure, minimizing damaging costs for financial institutions, borrowers and communities.

Home Price Decline Protection Incentives and Foreclosure Alternatives, together with the other comprehensive elements of the Making Home Affordable program, will help to stabilize property values for homeowners in neighborhoods hardest hit by foreclosures. Based on estimates of the relationship between foreclosures and home prices, the Home Affordable Modification program could help to bolster home values for the average homeowner by as much as $6,000.

For complete article click on the link below . . .

Home Price Decline Protection Incentives and Foreclosure Alternatives

To learn more about these options visit MakingHomeAffordable.gov

Making Home Affordable

Learn About Making Home Affordable

Refinancing
Many homeowners pay their mortgages on time but are not able to refinance to take advantage of today’s lower mortgage rates perhaps due to a decrease in the value of their home.

Modification
Many homeowners are struggling to make their monthly mortgage payments perhaps because their interest rate has increased or they have less income.

Have We Reached Bottom? 10 Factors to Consider

RISMEDIA, June 24, 2009-Historically, the value of real estate goes through cycles. Many factors affect the value of homes including the laws of “supply and demand.” From the Appraisal Institute, here’s a quick reference guide to some of the factors involved and advice on how to spot a turning point in the market:

1. A spike in local sales activity. A spike refers to a significant rise in the number of home sales (or values) in a local market area, which generally is measured month to month. A spike does not necessarily mean continued growth, i.e. it could be a one month phenomenon.

2. Higher asking and selling prices vs. appraisal value opinions for residential properties. Appraisers study the markets; they do not make the markets. When the data shows higher sale prices in comparable properties market value opinions will increase proportionally. Appraisers seek evidence of value but do not create the value. In time periods with low activity, evidence of any kind is difficult to find.

3. More activity at open houses. Open houses with five to eight attendees is considered average, so a dozen or more people attending an open house means buyer interest is picking up. Also, the mood of the attendees is important. Are they optimist and upbeat? Buyers interest alone does not always translate to effective purchasing power. If the number of buyers in the market increases but they do not have requisite down payments, the sales may still not occur.

4. Shorter marketing times. In some markets, houses have been up for sale for more than a year. In most balanced residential markets, properties that are priced competitively will typically sell in less than six months. If the Days On Market (DOM) is shortening, many practitioners will read an improvement in the market.

5. Reduced number of foreclosures and short sales. A reduction in these transactions commonly signals a more balanced market. If lenders are reluctant to foreclose because of an oversupply of inventory, they may choose to wait to repossess the properties, which could allow a spike in the number of foreclosures later despite a better market condition.

6. Stabilized employment. Stable or increasing employment rates provide the necessary confidence for potential buyers to invest in a home. Since most buyers rely on borrowed funds to make real estate purchases and borrowing money usually requires a source of repayment and that usually means jobs, an increase in this basic need, will enable more real estate sales.

7. Fewer buyer incentives and seller concessions. Seller-paid incentives or concessions are a sign of seller motivation. If there are fewer builders offering “free” upgrades and fewer sellers sweetening the deal with big screen TVs, it may be a sign of lessening supply and therefore a better market.

8. New construction starts. Most builders are quite attune to their markets and will not build new homes without a corresponding contract for sale or a perceived increase in demand. An increase in the number of building permits usually indicates higher demand and higher prices. If residential properties are selling for 25% less than they cost to build, only a few new homes will be built. It would be prudent to buy an existing home rather than build a new one for a much higher price.

9. “Move-up” buyers entering the market. More buyers willing to move to a larger or superior quality home indicates a healthy market. The lack of buyers at the lower end of the price range will have a chain reaction throughout the market. If a buyer for a high priced home has a lower priced home to sell first, the sale of the higher priced home may have to occur before the higher priced one can sell.

10. Apartments advertising renter specials - fewer renters in the market may indicate more people are moving into owner occupied homes or it could indicate a reduction in population. Lower population will cause an oversupply of housing which will oftentimes permeate throughout several markets.

Read more: http://rismedia.com/2009-06-23/have-we-reached-bottom-10-factors-to-consider/#ixzz0JLvEGcI2&C

Video, Right time to buy a home

Click here, Right Time to Buy a Home

REALTOR® Magazine-Daily News-Bank Gives Cities, States First Shot at REOs

REALTOR® Magazine-Daily News-Bank Gives Cities, States First Shot at REOs

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The State of the Nation's Housing Market 2009

Not all national housing research comes from NAR. Sometimes other research outlets have a thing or two to say, and we tend to listen up if it's an outlet as prestigious as the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University.

They have released their annual report, The State of the Nation's Housing 2009. It's a beautiful piece of work: elegant and complete.
| CHECK IT OUT

 

 

Monthly Skinny Video for June 2009

The June 2009 Monthly Skinny Video is online now! This month's edition is another quickfire update on the Twin Cities housing market, this time narrated by our President-Elect, Brad Fisher

EXPERTS: Metro Foreclosures Declining

Would you believe there is a shortage of foreclosed homes in some areas of the Metro? That is exactly what real estate agents are saying about some pockets of St. Paul and Minneapolis.

"Certain communities that have always been strong are strong now and if they have foreclosures they're selling quickly," said Edina Realty General Sales Manager Barb Jandric.

Others say there are more buyers now than there are foreclosed homes.

"We're actually approaching a point where the foreclosure market is considered a sellers market because of the inventory of the supply and demand ratio," said realtor Graham Smith.

The buying trend has not totally spread to the northern and southern suburbs yet, but realtors believe it will start happening later this year.

http://kstp.com/news/stories/S988544.shtml?cat=1

U.S. Ups the Ante in Foreclosure Program

The U.S. government is offering another $3.1 billion to mortgage servicing companies to encourage them to modify loans for borrowers facing foreclosure.

More than 9 percent of 45 million U.S. mortgages, or about 4 million loans, were delinquent in the first quarter of 2009, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

The Obama administration put up $50 billion in March as an incentive to encourage the mortgage industry to modify loans to make monthly payments more affordable. So far, however, the plan hasn’t been very effective with relatively few borrowers able to qualify.

To increase the numbers, the administration last month expanded the program to provide incentives for lenders to streamline their short-sale processes.

As of this week about 50,000 borrowers are enrolled in three-month trial modifications under the plan, the Treasury Department says.

Part of the problem, lenders say, is the volume of applicants, which has overwhelmed workers charged with modifying the loans.

Source: The Associated Press, Martin Crutsinger (06162009)

Short-sale scams

More homeowners than ever are being approached by those proffering fraudulent foreclosure rescue services, according to the National Short Sale Center.
 
The types of fraud circulating include sale-leasebacks, quitclaims, stripping homeowner equity, and misleading homeowners into signing over deeds. And with the administration's mortgage relief initiatives and its recent push for modifications, dozens of bogus companies with official-sounding names and fake Web sites mimicking the fonts and layouts of government sites claim to help struggling homeowners modify their mortgages

Car keys

For those of you who have car security alarms which can be activated from your key fob.
 
PUT YOUR CAR KEYS BESIDE YOUR BED AT NIGHT

Tell your spouse, your children, your neighbors, your parents, your Dr's office, the check- out girl at the market, everyone you run across.

If you hear a noise outside your home, or someone trying to get in your house, just press the panic button for your car. The alarm will be set off, and the horn will continue to sound until either you turn it off, or the car battery dies.

This tip came from a neighborhood watch coordinator. Next time you come home for the night, and you start to put your keys away, think of this:

It's a security alarm system, that you probably already have and requires no installation. Test it. It will go off from most everywhere inside your house, and will keep honking until your battery runs down, or until you reset it with the button on the key fob chain. It works if you park in your driveway, or garage..

If your car alarm goes off when someone is trying to break into your house, odds are the burglar, rapist, won't stick around... After a few seconds, all the neighbors will be looking out their windows to see who is out there, and sure enough the criminal won't want that. And remember to carry your keys while walking to your car in a parking lot. The alarm can work the same way there ..... This is something that should really be shared with everyone. Maybe it could save a life or a sexual abuse crime.

P.S.  Would also be useful for any emergency, such as a heart attack, where you can't reach a phone.

Tips for Selling Your Home to a First-Time Buyer

By AMY HOAK

A federal tax credit of up to $8,000 is nudging many Americans into buying a home for the first time -- good news for those trying to sell one.

Still, selling a home isn't easy in most markets today. To get the typical first-time buyer to bite and submit an offer, a house has to stand apart from the competition -- and there's a lot of it, including foreclosure homes that are selling at hefty discounts.

One big thing working in favor of the traditional seller: A lived-in, maintained home is easier for buyers to imagine themselves living in than a vacant foreclosure. That has great appeal for someone buying a home for the first time, for practical and financial reasons.

"First-time buyers are skeptical of buying homes that need improvement. Sellers certainly don't need to remodel the kitchen, but they want to make sure that their home showcases very well," said Eric Mangan.

In fact, while nearly half of brokers polled for a survey last year found that affordability was the No. 1 concern for first-time buyers, 81% said move-in conditions were very important to these buyers. Only 7% said first-time buyers were looking to purchase fixer-upper homes that they could buy on the cheap and renovate.

Those feelings are likely just as strong today as lenders generally require larger down payments, unless the mortgage is backed by the Federal Housing Administration. Higher down payments means buyers have less cash left over for improvements, said Leslee MacKenzie, of Coldwell Banker Hickok & Boardman Realty in Burlington, Vt.

"They're doing what they can to save for the down payment," she said, and that will deplete some of the funds a home buyer would have for repairs. "They're concerned about out-of-pocket expenses upon taking ownership."

While foreclosures that are in severe disrepair can be a huge turnoff for a first-time buyer, some banks will make improvements to their foreclosure stock, fixing them up so that they meet FHA standards and a buyer's needs, said Chuck Whitehead, of Coldwell Banker Associated Brokers in Southern California. These homes can be stiff competition for the rest of the for-sale inventory.

Never fear; there are still ways to outshine other homes on the market. Assuming you've priced the home correctly, here are five ways to lure a first-time buyer:

1. Maintain and stage.

A home that has been taken care of throughout the years will offer a stark contrast to a vacant, empty foreclosure. "If someone is living there, the landscaping is not dead," Mr. Whitehead said. "There is warmth in the home," and that can go a long way in selling a property. "It's all about the emotion, of having the ability to see what they can have."

As with any home, a fresh coat of paint, decluttering and the removal of unpleasant odors can go a long way to making a good first impression. But be careful not to over-improve the home, because the investment might not be worth the cost.

2. Mention that you'll help pay closing costs.

Whether it's in the marketing material or in the listing, this could be an extra motivator to reel in a buyer. Generally, there's a good chance they'll ask for closing cost help anyway, but it might pay off to be proactive and offer it at the beginning, said Heather Joubran, a real-estate agent with Re/Max Central Realty in Lake Mary, Fla.

If rising mortgage rates have your buyer spooked, consider paying mortgage points to bring the rate down, Mr. Mangan said. But consider a buyer's timeline for staying in the home before deciding if this is the most effective way to help; paying points generally makes sense for those staying in a home for more than a few years.

3. Offer a home warranty.

First-time buyers are often coming from a rental, and they are used to calling a landlord when there's a problem. To help them more easily transition into homeownership, provide them a warranty that covers major systems when problems arise, Ms. Joubran said.

4. Offer a buyer mortgage protection.

In some cases, it might make sense to address buyers' fears by purchasing insurance so they can keep up with their mortgage even if after losing a job. Coldwell Banker has such a program through its parent company, Realogy.

Basically, the plan will make several months of mortgage payments in the event that the buyer becomes unemployed. "There are people with secure jobs who are still nervous. This can give them just a little more comfort," Ms. MacKenzie said.

5. Don't snub low offers.

Buyers know prices have fallen, so they're being aggressive in their offers -- sometimes extremely aggressive. But even if they come in with a shocking lowball offer, don't scoff at it.

"My rule of thumb is every offer deserves a counteroffer," Ms. Joubran said. "At least counter them back. It gets the conversation going."

Write to Amy Hoak at amy.hoak@dowjones.com

Printed in The Wall Street Journal, page D10

Foreclosures Pose Problems

Uninsured foreclosed properties, particularly condominiums, can be risky for property owners in nearby homes.

Vacant houses are vulnerable to vandalism, theft, and accidental fires. If the property has an adjoining wall, the damage can be significant.

Another issue is that insurers can be very reluctant to offer insurance in condominiums or neighborhoods where there are empty buildings.

"Some [condo] buildings have such a stigma from the number of vacant units that insurers will not insure occupied units for fear of increased claim and assessment costs if a loss were to occur," says Robert Friedman, a West Palm Beach, Fla., attorney specializing in property issues.

Source: South Florida Sun Sentinel, Julie Patel (06/12/2009)

Flag Day

The History Of Flag Day

The Fourth of July was traditionally celebrated as America's birthday, but the idea of an annual day specifically celebrating the Flag is believed to have first originated in 1885. BJ Cigrand, a schoolteacher, arranged for the pupils in the Fredonia, Wisconsin Public School, District 6, to observe June 14 (the 108th anniversary of the official adoption of The Stars and Stripes) as 'Flag Birthday'. In numerous magazines and newspaper articles and public addresses over the following years, Cigrand continued to enthusiastically advocate the observance of June 14 as 'Flag Birthday', or 'Flag Day'.

On June 14, 1889, George Balch, a kindergarten teacher in New York City, planned appropriate ceremonies for the children of his school, and his idea of observing Flag Day was later adopted by the State Board of Education of New York. On June 14, 1891, the Betsy Ross House in Philadelphia held a Flag Day celebration, and on June 14 of the following year, the New York Society of the Sons of the Revolution, celebrated Flag Day.

Following the suggestion of Colonel J Granville Leach (at the time historian of the Pennsylvania Society of the Sons of the Revolution), the Pennsylvania Society of Colonial Dames of America on April 25, 1893 adopted a resolution requesting the mayor of Philadelphia and all others in authority and all private citizens to display the Flag on June 14th. Leach went on to recommend that thereafter the day be known as 'Flag Day', and on that day, school children be assembled for appropriate exercises, with each child being given a small Flag.

Two weeks later on May 8th, the Board of Managers of the Pennsylvania Society of Sons of the Revolution unanimously endorsed the action of the Pennsylvania Society of Colonial Dames. As a result of the resolution, Dr. Edward Brooks, then Superintendent of Public Schools of Philadelphia, directed that Flag Day exercises be held on June 14, 1893 in Independence Square. School children were assembled, each carrying a small Flag, and patriotic songs were sung and addresses delivered.

In 1894, the governor of New York directed that on June 14 the Flag be displayed on all public buildings. With BJ Cigrand and Leroy Van Horn as the moving spirits, the Illinois organization, known as the American Flag Day Association, was organized for the purpose of promoting the holding of Flag Day exercises. On June 14th, 1894, under the auspices of this association, the first general public school children's celebration of Flag Day in Chicago was held in Douglas, Garfield, Humboldt, Lincoln, and Washington Parks, with more than 300,000 children participating.

Adults, too, participated in patriotic programs. Franklin K. Lane, Secretary of the Interior, delivered a 1914 Flag Day address in which he repeated words he said the flag had spoken to him that morning: "I am what you make me; nothing more. I swing before your eyes as a bright gleam of color, a symbol of yourself."

Inspired by these three decades of state and local celebrations, Flag Day - the anniversary of the Flag Resolution of 1777 - was officially established by the Proclamation of President Woodrow Wilson on May 30th, 1916. While Flag Day was celebrated in various communities for years after Wilson's proclamation, it was not until August 3rd, 1949, that President Truman signed an Act of Congress designating June 14th of each year as National Flag Day.

Mortgage Rates reach 7-month High

Higher interest rates put the brakes on mortgage refinancing this week, according to Freddie Mac.

The firm's weekly survey pegged interest on 30-year fixed mortgages at an average of 5.59 percent -- up from 5.29 percent last week and the highest rate since November 2008.

Other rates also climbed:

  • Interest climbed to 5.06 percent from 4.79 percent for 15-year fixed loans;
  • 5.17 percent from 4.85 percent for five-year, adjustable-rate mortgages;
  • 5.04 percent from 4.81 percent for one-year ARMs.


Freddie Mac chief economist Frank Nothaft says the gains are not affecting home purchase loans.

Source: Boston Globe (06/12/09)

Foreclosures won't end soon

Rising unemployment and falling home prices is a treacherous combination that is dragging people with excellent credit into the foreclosure morass.

The jobless rate of 4.4 percent in April of people with bachelor’s degrees isn’t high compared with the overall unemployment rate, but it is more than double what it was a year ago.

Foreclosures are unlikely to peak until 2011, says David Crowe, chief economist of the National Association of Home Builders. He says foreclosures typically hit a high after unemployment does, and he believes the employment situation won’t turn around until late this year. Then rising employment will drive up interest rates, he fears, causing more resets of adjustable rate mortgages, leading to more foreclosures.

Credit Suisse echoes Crowe’s concerns, predicting that scheduled resets will hit a high in 2010 and rates will stay high until 2012.

Source: Business Week, Peter Coy (06/15/2009)

Housing market warming up

Distressed sales still dominate the market, but the number of regular home sales is increasing, Realtors report.

Home sales were on the rise again in the Twin Cities area last month, and although foreclosures and other distressed sales still make up a large chunk of the market, they're shrinking as a percentage of total sales, Realtor groups reported Wednesday. Here's a breakdown:

PENDING SALES

+17.3% Percentage increase from May 2008. Sellers had signed purchase agreements for 5,183 homes last month.

LENDER-MEDIATED SALES

+43% The percentage of pending sales that were the result of foreclosures or other distressed sales. That's down from 46 percent in April and 59.4 percent in January.

CLOSED SALES

+8.4%

Percentage increase from May 2008. Last month, 4,031 sales closed.

MEDIAN SALE PRICE

$165,000

Down 20 percent from a year ago, but up from $153,000 in April.

MORTGAGE RATES

+5.8% Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in the Twin Cities this month. Mortgage rates have popped back up from historic lows earlier this year.

SUZANNE ZIEGLER Minneapolis StarTribune

Senate Renews Push to Expand Homebuyer Tax Credit to $15,000

By Dawn Kopecki

June 10 (Bloomberg) -- Lawmakers are pushing to revive legislation in the Senate that would almost double an $8,000 tax credit for first-time homebuyers and expand the program to all borrowers.

Senator Johnny Isakson, a Georgia Republican, plans to introduce a bill today that increases the tax credit to $15,000 and removes income and other restrictions on who can qualify for the credit, according to his spokesman, Sheridan Watson.

The legislation, which is co-sponsored by Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd of Connecticut and other Democrats, would extend the homebuyer credit to multi-family properties that are used as the borrower’s primary residence. It would also eliminate income caps of $75,000 and $150,000 on individuals and couples seeking to claim the credit.

“The housing market continues to be a drag on the economy, said John Castellani, president of the Washington-based Business Roundtable, which represents the interests of more than 100 CEOs including General Electric Co.’s Jeffrey Immelt and Exxon Mobil Corp.’s Rex Tillerson. “We believe that if we don’t stabilize this vital sector, we can’t turn the tide on the recession.”

The Business Roundtable and the National Association of Realtors are both pushing to expand the tax credit and to lower mortgage rates to revive the U.S. housing market.

Isakson’s bill would extend the credit, which expires at the end of 2009, to one year after it’s signed into law, according to Watson. It would also allow borrowers to divide the credit over two years. The bill is co-sponsored by Republican Senators Lamar Alexander of Tennessee, Saxby Chambliss of Georgia, David Vitter of Louisiana and James Risch of Idaho.

Senators Patty Murray, a Washington Democrat, and Joseph Lieberman, a Connecticut independent, have also signed on to the bill, according to Watson.

Mortgage Rates

The roundtable and Realtors groups also recommended the Federal Reserve continue its plans to purchase mortgage securities guaranteed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Federal Home Loan Banks to drive down mortgage rates below 5 percent.

The Fed is about a third of the way through its $1.25 trillion commitment, holding $427.6 billion of mortgage debt backed by the government-sponsored enterprises as of June 3, according to the New York Federal Reserve.

The average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate U.S. mortgage jumped last week to the highest level since November, rising to 5.57 percent from 5.25 percent the prior week, according to data released today by the Mortgage Bankers Association.

To contact the reporter on this story: Dawn Kopecki in Washington at dkopecki@bloomberg.net.



Say the right thing in the right place

The real art of conversation is not only to say the right thing in the right place, but to leave unsaid the wrong thing at the tempting moment." The best leaders are not just good at saying what needs to be said. They also know when to keep their mouths shut—even when remaining silent is very hard to do.

Do not be discouraged

Edison failed 10, 000 times before he made the electric light. Do not be discouraged if you fail a few times. Napoleon Hill

Home Sales Are Set to Increase

In another sign that the housing market may have begun to recover, the number of people who signed contracts to purchase homes increased for the third month in a row.

[A sign indicates the pending sale of a home in Little Rock, Ark.] Associated Press

A sign indicates the pending sale of a home in Little Rock, Ark.

Developments

Housing Sales Slowly Emerging From the Woods

WSJ's Nick Timiraos says that there is more good news for housing as the pending home sales index has risen for the third straight month, but may not entirely be out of the woods yet.

The National Association of Realtors said its index of pending-home sales rose 6.7% in April to 90.3 from 84.6 in March. Increases in contract signings typically lead to more sales a month or two later.

The relationship between the two has been less steady since the fall, as more would-be home buyers have struggled to get financing. But the increase in signings is large enough to augur more home purchases, said Joshua Shapiro, an economist with MFR. "Clearly, within the next couple of months there's going to be a decent increase in actual home sales," he said.

Much of the April increase came from the Northeast, where contract signings rose 32.6%. Signings rose 9.8% in the Midwest and 1.8% in the West; they slipped 0.2% in the South.

Year over year, the index was up 3.2%. The 6.7% monthly increase was much larger than the 0.5% gain analysts had projected.

Last week, the Realtors said sales of previously owned homes rose in April, with sales of foreclosed and other distressed properties accounting for nearly half of the total. The Commerce Department said sales of new homes also edged higher in April.

—Jeff Bater contributed to this article.

Write to Justin Lahart at justin.lahart@wsj.com

Printed in The Wall Street Journal, page A2

Should Home Buyers Lock in Rates?

REALTOR® Magazine-Daily News-Should Home Buyers Lock in Rates? Shared via AddThis

"ITZ the Right Realtor at the Right Time"

YouTube, "ITZ the Right Realtor at the Right time" video

REALTOR® Magazine-Daily News-HUD: Tax Credit Can Be Used on Closing Costs

REALTOR® Magazine-Daily News-HUD: Tax Credit Can Be Used on Closing Costs Shared via AddThis

Monthly Skinny Video for May 2009

The May 2009 Monthly Skinny Videois online now! This month's edition is narrated by our Immediate Past-President, Kevin Knudsen (aka "K-Kanood" or "K2").

YouTube version  |  High-Quality MPG version

Homes: Most affordable in 2 decades

U.S. home prices are their most affordable in 18 years, according to a report released Monday.

Nearly 73% of all homes sold in the United States during the first three months of 2009 were considered affordable. That was the highest percentage ever reported by the 18-year-old Housing Opportunity Index, an analysis of markets compiled quarterly by the National Association of Homebuilders and Wells Fargo Bank.

To be deemed affordable, a family making the median national income of $64,000 must be able to buy the property and devote no more than 28% of their income toward housing costs.

for the entire article click here

Homes: most affordable in 20 years

U.S. home prices are their most affordable in 18 years, according to a report released Monday.  Nearly 73% of all homes sold in the United States during the first three months of 2009 were considered affordable. That was the highest percentage ever reported by the 18-year-old Housing Opportunity Index, an analysis of markets compiled quarterly by the National Association of Homebuilders and Wells Fargo Bank.
 
To be deemed affordable, a family making the median national income of $64,000 must be able to buy the property and devote no more than 28% of their income toward housing costs.  Plummeting home prices were primarily responsible for sending affordability soaring from just over 60% in last three months of 2008 to 72.5% in the first quarter of 2009. Sinking interest rates also contributed to affordability. A 30-year fixed mortgage averaged less than 5% during much of the quarter, according to mortgage giant Freddie Mac.
 
For the 15th consecutive quarter, Indianapolis led the nation's large cities (population 500,000 and up) in home affordability. On the other end of the spectrum, only 21% of the homes sold in the New York/White Plains metro area were affordable to those earning the median income of $64,800. Even there, affordability jumped seven percentage points compared with the last three months of 2008.

Housing Supply Outlook – May 2009

The May Housing Supply Outlook is available. Lately, there appears to be a jumbo-sized problem with home sales (if you know what we mean). Here's what to watch for:

While it's certainly welcome news that home sales are up in the Twin Cities metro, there's a big caveat to keep in mind pertaining to price points. All of the growth in sales can be found in the lower price ranges where foreclosure and short sales are more common.

The largest drops in home sales can be found in the price ranges above $350,000 where higher jumbo mortgage rates are charged to borrowers.

The inventory of homes for sale is now lower than it was a year ago for every price range except homes under $120,000, where it is still up 38.1 percent from this time last year.

Home Sales Hot Streak Continues Into Spring Heat

April home sales in the Twin Cities were even stronger than March's upswing. There were 5,211 pending sales in April, up 23.8 percent from last April. This is the highest showing of signed purchase agreements in April since 2005 and the tenth consecutive month of year-over-year increases.

Of the month's pending sales, 46.0 percent were lender-mediated foreclosures and short sales—down from the last few months as more traditional properties are sold during the spring selling season but up from last year at this time.

The supply of homes for sale continues to experience sluggish growth this spring. There are currently 26,410 homes for sale in the Twin Cities, up 416 units from last month and down 18.4 percent from this time last year. The number of houses for sale for each buyer, as measured by our Supply-Demand Ratio, sits at 5.23 for May—down 28.6 percent from this time last year.

The median sales price for all properties in April of $153,000 is down 25.2 percent from a year ago. While this figure is mathematically correct, it is conceptually flawed. Since a higher share of sales this April were lender-mediated than last April, the number is skewed downward. The median April sales price of traditional homes was $205,000, down 8.5 percent from a year ago. Lender-mediated homes posted an April figure of $120,000, down 21.5 percent from a year ago.

Monthly Indicators

Weekends

Give a man a fish and he has food for a day; teach him how to fish and you can get rid of him for the entire weekend.

Did you know?

In the 1920s, Henry Ford turned wood scraps from the production of Model T's into charcoal briquettes.  He built a charcoal plant, which later became Kingsord Charcoal.

  

Tax Credit Can Be Used for Down Payment

Shaun Donovan, secretary of the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, on Tuesday said that the Federal Housing Administration is going to permit its lenders to allow home buyers to use the $8,000 tax credit as a down payment.

Previously, most buyers wouldn't receive the funds until after they filed their tax return, and that deterred some people from using the credit. The NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® has been calling for the change.

“We all want to enable FHA consumers to access the home buyer tax credit funds when they close on their home loans so that the cash can be used as a down payment,” Donovan says. His remarks came in an address to several thousand REALTORS® gathered Tuesday morning at "The Real Estate Summit: Advancing the U.S. Economy," at the 2009 REALTORS® Midyear Legislative Meetings & Trade Expo in Washington, D.C..

He says FHA’s approved lenders will be permitted to “monetize” the tax credit through short-term bridge loans. This will allow eligible home buyers to access the funds immediately at the closing table.

Competitive Pricing Called Key to Timely Sales

One of the hardest things for a home seller to do is to agree to drop the price, but in this tough market, realistic pricing is crucial, experts say.

Home sale price reports can be behind the curve because these reports are based on property closings that lag the market, says Gary Malin, president of Citi Habitats in New York City. He recommends monitoring current sale listings instead.

Mollie Carmichael, senior vice president of John Burns Real Estate Consulting in Irvine, Calif., says that setting the initial asking price 15 percent to 20 percent below other listings from the very beginning can get things moving and even trigger a bidding war.

"If you close fast and sell fast, you have a better opportunity to retain value," Carmichael says. "Premiums are very, very difficult to achieve in a market like the one we have today."

Source: Business Week, Prashant Gopal (05/06/2009

Bargains Hard to Find In Attractive Areas

Potential buyers in areas that were hard hit by the housing downturn have read about bargains, but only find it disappointing when they go shopping.

"Every open house I've been to has been a zoo," says first-time homebuyer Sam Rivero, who has looked at 35 properties during the last three months. "If you follow what the media say, you'd think sellers are desperate to sell a house, but when you get there it's totally the opposite."

When the real estate bubble burst, it didn’t affect the mid-priced market, said real estate information firm MDA DataQuick. Instead, it created opportunities in troubled neighborhoods and slowed sales in the market of homes priced above $1 million. But in areas where most of the homes sell for $400,000 to $800,000, there are few discounts to be found.

Even the foreclosure market has slowed, says University of Southern California Professor of Real Estate Tracey Seslen. Seslen said lenders with foreclosures are supporting market stabilization and releasing only a few homes at a time to avoid flooding the markets.

"The biggest problem," says Phyllis Harb, an associate with RE/Max Tri City in La Canada, Calif., "is that people are overreacting to housing statistics, thinking they can come in and make an offer 20 percent below price."

Source: Los Angeles Times, Chip Jacobs (05/03/2009)

It's Not Over After a Short Sale

Financially troubled borrowers who think mortgage woes are over after losing their home are facing lenders seeking the difference between what they owe and what their homes are worth.

For complete article from the Wall Street Journal click here.

Tax Hits on Property Short Sales

It's not so unusual these days to have mortgage debt that exceeds the current value of your principal residence. If you hang on to the property long enough, you have a reasonably good chance of riding out the storm with little or no harm done. On the other hand, if you have to sell now, you face what's called a "short sale" -- which means selling for a net sales price (after subtracting commissions and other closing costs) that's less than the outstanding mortgage debt.

What are the tax consequences of a short sale? Click here for complete article from Wall Street Journal.

Mortgage insurance if job loss

Did you know that insurance is available to homeowners who might be fearful of losing their job with monthly payments up to 6 months. http://ping.fm/dl462 Thanks to Steve Westmark who brought this to my attention.

Chinese Dry Wall

Amajor concern has developed with drywall manufactured in and imported from China, which was installed in residential properties in the United States. Several reputable reports have surfaced regarding this construction material also known as gypsum board, wallboard or plasterboard, leading Primacy Relocation to inform our clients of the potential problems and hazards surrounding "Chinese drywall". Information on the background, issues and initial recommendations will be explored as Primacy continues to investigate solutions to present to our clients.

History

The housing boom and reconstruction activity which followed several natural disasters, especially Hurricane Katrina, put a severe strain on construction materials and, specifically, the supply of U.S. manufactured drywall. To meet the demand, builders ordered from international suppliers to fill the shortage.

Detection

Homeowners in certain areas of the U.S. have started complaining about a foul odor, similar to rotten eggs, permeating their homes. In some extreme cases, homeowners vacated their homes due to of the putrid odor. Homeowners are finding that, in addition to this horrible smell, their air conditioning systems, copper pipes and wiring are being damaged by corrosive elements contained in the material. In some cases systems are failing, having to be repaired or completely replaced.

Cause

This imported drywall is constructed from waste materials from coal fired power plants containing iron sulfur, hydrogen sulfide and several additional sulfur by-products not found in domestically manufactured drywall. It is believed that the sulfur is emitted in humid weather, producing the odor. In addition to the odor, the sulfur emission corrodes copper causing extreme damage to electrical wiring, copper plumbing and air conditioning coils in some instances.

It may also affect other metals found in homes such as brass and silver, along with tarnished faucets. Homes showing signs of the most damage have been found in areas of high humidity such as Florida, Louisiana and other Gulf states.

Extent of the Issue

Initially, it was thought the drywall was imported between 2004-2006, but further investigation shows that importing of this product may have begun as early as 2000. The Wall Street Journal estimates that 495 million pounds of Chinese Drywall has been imported to the U.S. since 2002.

To meet the booming demand, many building supply companies imported drywall from a German-based company, Knauf -Tiajin, with subsidiaries in China. It was shipped through eastern seaboard ports, along with ports in California, Texas and New Orleans. Suppliers imported this product and, in some instances, may have re-branded the drywall, so the full extent of the distribution is extremely difficult to track. It is further suspected that some of the drywall may have been imported through Mexico under additional brand names.

The products have been sold to major construction companies, and distributed to home improvement stores throughout the United States and possibly Canada. As a result, the problems associated with this material impacts not only new construction but also homeowners who completed major remodeling or renovations on their homes.

This drywall has been confirmed in homes in Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Virginia, Texas and Michigan. However, it is suspected that homes throughout the U.S. and Canada may be impacted as investigations of the distribution patterns are unfolding.

Determination of Chinese Drywall

Absent a sulfur odor in the property, the standard home inspection would not be able to detect the presence of Chinese drywall. Determining if a property contains Chinese drywall can be difficult, may be invasive and may be quite expensive. One possible method to determine if a home was built using Chinese drywall is an inspection of the attic in an attempt to view the edges of the drywall used to construct the interior walls. The drywall may be stamped with the word KNAUF or China, or with Chinese lettering. However, because of re-branding of the drywall or limitations with respect to visibility, these names or hallmarks may not be present or observable, so additional invasive sampling and testing must

Fight Inflation: Buy a Home!

Some economic analysts say that the possibility that the economy will go into overdrive and inflation will skyrocket is a much more frightening possibility than the current recession.

One inflation hedge nearly all of them point to is real estate. Owning it outright is the best scenario, but if that’s not possible, a low-rate, 30-year fixed mortgage is the next best thing. As inflation drives up salaries, mortgage payments will stay the same, analysts point out.

Source: USA Today, John Waggoner (04/24/2009)

Learn about Twin Cities Neighborhoods

The Twin Cities today are launching a new website aimed at encouraging homeownership.

It's a website that allows potential home buyers for the first time to click on any of the 80-plus neighborhoods in the two central cities and learn about every financial incentive available -- from federal stimulus deals to small fix-up loans.

Gauge the "walkscore'' for any house, which measures the home's proximity to nearby coffeehouses, parks, schools and other amenities. Watch embedded video, click on dozens of related links, view testimonials from neighbors -- and upload your own.

The site can be found at www.livemsp.org.

Where to Get Foreclosure Help

With all the dubious assistance programs and out-right scams preying on home owners facing foreclosure, it can be difficult to find legitimate help.

Here’s a list of programs that are either operated by the U.S. government or have its seal of approval:

  • Call (888) 995-HOPE, the Homeowner’s HOPE Hotline to reach a nonprofit, HUD-approved counselor through HOPE NOW, a cooperative effort of mortgage counselors and lenders to assist homeowners.
  • The Controller of the Currency’s consumer information site for banking-related questions is www.helpwithmybank.gov